IPPR North have published the document
“Where Stands the Union Now?” by John Curtice, Professor of Politics and Director of the Social Statistics Laboratory at the University of Strathclyde.
There are countless surveys that demonstrate that there is a significant majority of people in England who demand constitutional equality with their fellow citizens. There is also evidence, such as the annual British Social Attitudes Survey, where such demands for equality are lukewarm or fall to a level of circa 20-25%. Curtice explains this phenomenon to be the result of the wording of the question, which he says is “crucial”.
Support for an English Parliament falls away if the wording implies, or specifically states that an EP would weaken, threaten, or even end the Union.
Ask people in England if they want
‘the establishment of an English Parliament within the UK, with similar powers to those currently enjoyed by the Scottish Parliament’ and
68% say “yes”.(1)
Imply that an EP MIGHT mean an alternative to the UK by taking out the phrase
“within the UK” and add
“England only” and those in favour
drop to 51%(2)
Imply that an EP WILL mean an alternative to the UK (status quo) by asking
“…choose between the three main options that have been proposed for England – the status quo, regional assemblies and an English Parliament.” And support for an EP
crashes to 20-25%. (3)
Refer to an EP along the same lines as the Scottish one, viz
‘…now that Scottish devolution is well established – and may be extended – England should now have its own parliament too’. .. and the figure
shoots back up to 65% (4)
The above surveys (referred to in Curtice’s paper) took place between January 2007 and January 2008. This is a very short time for opinions to oscillate from 68% to 20% and back to 65%. Given the wording of the question and the response, the only explanation for such wild fluctuations is the perceived threat to the Union, in the mind of the interviewee.
This phenomenon is not restricted to England, although Scotland tends to approach it from a different angle. As Curtice points out
“When Scots are simply asked whether they support or oppose ‘independence’ plenty of polls find that over half do so.” This is because they see independence as less interference from Westminster rather than separation from the UK. When asked if Scotland should be
“independent, separate from UK and EU or separate from UK but part of EU” those
wanting independence fall to around 25-30%. (5) These numbers very similar to the English “status quo”.
Given the above, I find Curtice’s conclusion that
“…that England remains relatively uninterested in devolution for itself…”. extraordinary, given his own observation that
“… the wording of survey questions is crucial.” and his own evidence showing two thirds favouring an EP in two separate surveys. I can only assume that he is working to an agenda that is not wholly that of an academic independent observer.
The lesson for us (IMHO) is to emphasize the damage asymmetrical devolution is doing to the Union. Inequality breeds resentment; resentment will put an intolerable strain on the Union and that is why we need constitutional equality with our fellow citizens and only an EP will do.
1. November 2007 ICM Survey
2. January 2008 ICM Survey
3. January 2007 British Social Attitudes survey
4. May 2007 Populus Survey
5. “Where Stands the Union Now?” Table 3
Great Simon Heffer article in the Saturday Telegraph, where he simply states “Gordon Brown needs the Union…but do we?”
